This is based mostly on what I've seen around in blog, plus my own personal guesses from watching these films. I think I'll be fairly accurate at the top of each list, less likely in the later picks.
They're ordered by likelihood of winning. Nominees I'm certain will be nominated in those categories are in bold.
BEST PICTURE
1. The Social Network
2. The King’s Speech
3. Inception
4. The Fighter
5. Black Swan
6. True Grit
7. Toy Story 3
8. The Kids Are All Right
9. The Town
10. Winter’s Bone
I actually think 127 Hours might have a good shot at that last spot, but I'm rooting against it.
BEST DIRECTOR
1. David Fincher, The Social Network
2. Christopher Nolan, Inception
3. Tom Hooper, The King’s Speech
4. David O. Russell, The Fighter
5. Joel & Ethan Coen, True Grit
Tough to leave Daron Aronofsky off the list, but I don't see room for him. Nolan should win this, but I think it's just gonna be The Social Network's year.
BEST ACTOR
1. Colin Firth, The King’s Speech
2. James Franco, 127 Hours
3. Jesse Eisenberg, The Social Network
4. Jeff Bridges, True Grit
5. Javier Bardem, Biutiful
Tough to leave Robert Duvall off, but once again, a great year for acting. This category is over - Firth has already won this.
BEST ACTRESS
1. Natalie Portman, Black Swan
2. Annette Bening, The Kids Are All Right
3. Jennifer Lawrence, Winter’s Bone
4. Nicole Kidman, Rabbit Hole
5. Michelle Williams, Blue Valentine
It's a two-woman race between Portman and Bening. Everything else is unnecessary.
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
1. Christian Bale, The Fighter
2. Geoffrey Rush, The King’s Speech
3. Jeremy Renner, The Town
4. Mark Ruffalo, The Kids Are All Right
5. Andrew Garfield, The Social Network
No offense to Rush or Renner, but I think Bale has this locked up.
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
1. Melissa Leo, The Fighter
2. Amy Adams, The Fighter
3. Helena Bonham Carter, The King’s Speech
4. Hailee Steinfeld, True Grit
5. Mila Kunis, Black Swan
I have no feel for this category. I think this one could be a wild card. Anyone could win.
BEST ANIMATED FEATURE
1. Toy Story 3
2. How To Train Your Dragon
3. The Illusionist
It's either The Illusionist or Tangled, I'm not sure. The Illusionist certainly feels like Oscar bait. By the way, don't be certain that Toy Story 3 has Best Animated Feature locked up. I think How To Train Your Dragon could be a real player.